Tag Archives: Weekly FX Trade Plan

We’re Baaaaack! Market Monday: April 4, 2016

Eight years after starting this blog in 2008, the Federal Reserve has raised rates only once, in December 2015. The .25% rate hike coincided with a Wave 5 top on the monthly chart of most emerging market currencies, including the Dollar / Ruble (USD.RUB). Of these currencies, I’ve selected the USD.CAD (Canadian Dollar) and the USD.ZAR (South African Rand) because of their chart formations.

Weekly USD.CAD

20160404 USD.CAD Weekly Short

The Dollar Cad is set for a Wave 3 Elliott Wave move. In order to protect against a missed drop through support, I’ve set a sell stop with a sell limit set above the market at weekly resistance.

Prognosis

The Bank of Canada issues a rate statement in two weeks on 4/13 at which point I expect the BOC to sell strength in the Canadian economy. Until then, after the strong US jobs report on Friday, a pullback to weekly resistance is possible. I’m positioned for both outcomes.